Being nimble is the key
There is panic in the bear land now. The writing was always on the wall but bears chose to ignore the warning signs. It’s not that we were always bullish since March bottom. We turned bearish at every big correction on the way. We missed the start of every correction since March bottom but were nimble enough to change our bias from long to short and back to long when things stabilized. We have played this market better than the majority, be it the crash of 08 or the rally of 09. Many think that catching the top or bottom is the name of the game. On the contrary, the trick is in sensing the turn quickly rather than in anticipating a turn.
We keep it simple here. We let the market do the heavy lifting for us. We let it choose the route and we just follow it. The problem with so called stock market experts is that they map the route for the market and expect the market to take that route. And then there are some megalomaniacs who think that they can dictate the market to do their bidding.
As for the market, long is the name. This market has ways to go on the upside. Nasdaq has already made a new closing high for the year. It’s only a matter of time before the other indexes follow suit. Some are saying that only Nasdaq has made a closing new high and that’s a bearish non confirmation by other indexes. I find this hilarious. If all the indexes do not make new highs on the same day then it’s a non confirmation! How intuitive? Who comes up with these fancy theories? I guess some folks would go to any extent to not desert their pre conceived bias.
Any correction is an opportunity. Now I do not need to show any chart or video to convey something as simple as this. If I show a chart then it will open a whole new Pandora’s box. Some will say that the volume is missing and others would say that the market is overbought. I can’t deny any of this but still feel that the market is going much higher. I trust my feel for the market more than anything else because it has kept me on the right side of the market most of the times. And times when I have been on the wrong side, it has conveyed it to me quickly. I am not worried of being wrong but always on the lookout to correct the mistake quickly if I am. Anyone aiming for perfection will not survive in this market, period. This market hates perfectionists. Just play ball with the market and it will let you make something out of it.
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Market keeps plowing ahead
Posted by admin on February 28th, 2010 at 9:53 pm, Comments: 0Market has shrugged every bit of bad news in the past few days. The leading stocks are behaving nicely. The consumer confidence dipped but the retail sector is showing “no worries” attitude. It’s not the economic readings that would make anyone money but the stock market action. The action remains constructive and the path of [...]
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57.88% return in 10 weeks of real time trade alerts !
Posted by admin on February 23rd, 2010 at 11:15 pm, Comments: 0It’s not the fancy analysis that makes anyone money. It’s the trade execution that matters. Our results speak for themselves. All the trades are easily replicable by most trading accounts. Keeping it simple is the mantra here. It reflects in the analysis as well as trade executions.
It was tough few weeks in the market [...]
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Market rolls on
Posted by admin on February 22nd, 2010 at 12:22 am, Comments: 0Market surprised all those who thought that market would crater at the discount rate hike. Thursday’s close had tipped the hand on where the max expiration pain existed. It was a master stroke on fed’s part. They knew that announcing this ahead of the expiration would have the least impact on the market. The smart [...]
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Market has found support (for now)
Posted by vinaydh on February 16th, 2010 at 1:53 am, Comments: 0Market found support last week. The SPX 1060 level has held for now. For me the clue to cover shorts was when BIDU gapped up and continued rallying after the earnings. If a momentum stock like BIDU gaps up +$40 and keeps going higher, that’s not a sign of a weak market.
The levels to watch [...]
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Can the hammer save the market?
Posted by vinaydh on February 7th, 2010 at 9:10 pm, Comments: 0It seems many are focussed on the hammer painted on the major market index charts last Friday. Technically it has bullish implications, more so since $SPX bounced after touching the 200ema.
My thinking is that hammer or no hammer this market is headed down. I think at best it will give a reprieve for a few [...]
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Short rallies
Posted by vinaydh on February 1st, 2010 at 10:34 pm, Comments: 0This is not the market to be in love with the long side or catch falling knives. The leading stocks have started falling apart. GOOG has been weak for weeks now. AAPL, AMZN too have started sliding in right earnest. I think it’s way too early to talk of a bottom in the market.
I am amused [...]
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The writing is on the wall
Posted by vinaydh on January 25th, 2010 at 10:57 pm, Comments: 0Market has a different feel to it these days. The pullback is still not deeper than some of the other pullbacks but still the quickness of this move is a first since this uptrend started. That in itself is a big red flag for this rally. I think the odds of this turning into a [...]
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Caution is warranted now
Posted by vinaydh on January 21st, 2010 at 10:44 pm, Comments: 0I was worried that all those looking for 1160+ may get trapped and my worst fear has come to fruition. I have gone bearish thrice since the March’ 09 bottom and was forced to retract back in a week or two. Every time it felt different to me but it eventually turned out to be a [...]
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Market wants you to take a stand
Posted by vinaydh on January 20th, 2010 at 10:44 pm, Comments: 0In this market the choice is very clear. If one takes a stand one can at worst loose money but if one doesn’t take a stand one would loose money as well as sanity. It’s better to stick to one’s bias rather than jump around with every market antic. The most a bull or a [...]
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