Archive for August, 2009

• Mapping the Market
  Posted by vinaydh on August 31st, 2009 at 8:16 am, Comments: 0

  China sold off by another 6.7% overnight. So what, it had rallied much further and faster than the rest of the world. I had tweeted as far back as Aug 4th that “US has a lot of catching up to do with the emerging markets. Easy money on the long side is to be made [...]

• Top callers out in full force
  Posted by vinaydh on August 26th, 2009 at 8:26 am, Comments: 0

  Everyone is obsessed with calling a tops for the rally everyday. When Jim Cramer says “beware of the froth” then you know that even bulls have started second guessing this rally. As for bears they have been second guessing this rally since March 6th bottom. They keep shorting from higher levels and keep covering at [...]

• Case disposed in favor of bulls
  Posted by vinaydh on August 21st, 2009 at 3:17 pm, Comments: 0

  Not that I had any doubt about it. I posted both bull and bear arguments in yesterday’s post. In spite of seemingly cogent arguments from the bear side, this market has once again dictated loud and clear who is in control here. As bulls would say, it’s the market stupid. Bears are paying the price [...]

• Bull vs Bear
  Posted by vinaydh on August 20th, 2009 at 8:28 am, Comments: 0

  There is a fascinating debate raging on these days between bulls and bears. I will try to be a devils advocate and argue for both bull and bear case.
  Arguments for bear case -
  1. Economy is in shambles. Unemployment is rising, house prices are still falling, consumers are retrenching etc. How can the market go up?
  2. [...]

• Today was just the trailer
  Posted by vinaydh on August 17th, 2009 at 10:28 pm, Comments: 0

  Today was a trailer of things to come down the road. I do not think this market is ready to rollover right here and right now. I have always characterized this rally as a feel good fake rally. The evidence is mounting day by day that eventually this market will give back a significant portion, [...]

• Market doesn't want you on its back
  Posted by vinaydh on August 11th, 2009 at 9:00 pm, Comments: 0

  We got a modest dip in the market today but now many will be confused if it’s the start of a serious down move or a buying opportunity. Market is not going to make it easy for anyone to pull the trigger one way or the other. Market wants as little participants as possible on [...]

• Bears taken to the woodshed (again)
  Posted by vinaydh on August 7th, 2009 at 5:02 pm, Comments: 0

  Bears are paying the price for believing that they can fight with the market. Creative bulls (for my own definition see Aug 5th post) are paying the price for over-thinking. Only the fearless bulls who have taken a leap of faith and are long have benefited so far. One of these days the market will [...]

• Who's not looking for a pullback?
  Posted by vinaydh on August 7th, 2009 at 8:07 am, Comments: 0

  Not many. Will the market oblige the majority? I doubt it.
  The unemployment report is out and the street likes it. The market has worked off some off the overbought conditions in the past two days. It’s typical of a strong market to only correct for a few days before starting the run again. We have [...]

• Confusion is not an option
  Posted by vinaydh on August 5th, 2009 at 8:22 am, Comments: 0

  This market is going higher. Anyone who has been shorting has took the pain. Those who are waiting to go long on pullbacks have been frustrated. I think now it’s the turn of creative bulls to get frustrated by the market. By creative bulls, I mean those bulls who (over)think that the market has come [...]

• Bears capitulated, permabears left standing now
  Posted by vinaydh on August 3rd, 2009 at 11:24 pm, Comments: 0

  There comes a point in time when the odds are so heavily stacked against oneself that it’s better to run for the hills and live to die another day. Probably these permabears didn’t watch the James Bond movie “Die another day”.
  As for the market, I have been saying all along to keep a long bias. There is nothing [...]