Archive for November, 2009

  • Buy the Dubai nonsense
    Posted by vinaydh on November 29th, 2009 at 10:15 am, Comments: 0

    In the last post I had said that holiday shortened weeks are generally bullish. It seemed that the bullishness had run its course while the market was closed over the Thanksgiving holiday. The news out of Dubai had the futures spiraling down over Thanksgiving. We captured the 1100 level this week but lost it on [...]

  • What next?
    Posted by vinaydh on November 22nd, 2009 at 7:16 pm, Comments: 0

    Holiday shortened weeks are usually bullish. If history repeats itself then we shouldn’t break the lows from Friday next week. I think that 1100 will be captured this week and we should see 1160+ before the year is out.
    As for individual sectors, Ags have the tail wind right now. TRA, POT, MOS and MON look [...]

  • Staying the course
    Posted by vinaydh on November 20th, 2009 at 12:05 am, Comments: 0

    I think today’s sell off was exacerbated by the downgrade of chip sector by Bank of America and the expiration tomorrow. These analysts sure know when to come out with their calls. Currency market didn’t show any trend reversal that suggests that the risk trade is off the table. My thinking is that we bottom [...]

  • Looking through the eyes of gold
    Posted by vinaydh on November 15th, 2009 at 11:05 pm, Comments: 0

    Market has been tough to read the past few weeks. First the market broke down convincingly and breached 50ma and then it rallied back but not as convincingly as it broke down. The volume has been lacking and there are negative divergences everywhere. But amidst all this there is one commodity, gold, that has been [...]

  • Caution is warranted
    Posted by vinaydh on November 12th, 2009 at 8:33 pm, Comments: 0

    S&P hasn’t been able to close above 1100 yet. We are now in the expiration manipulation window. I think that together with overbought readings can cause near term weakness. Volume too has been trailing off recently. Gold finally took a breather and Dollar rallied. If this trade unravels then it can cause significant headwinds for the [...]

  • Bear case goes down the drain
    Posted by vinaydh on November 10th, 2009 at 12:04 am, Comments: 0

    The moment this market crossed 1080, I knew that I was wrong in thinking that this market will go down. I think I paid the price for over thinking. There really is some substance behind the saying, don’t fix it if it ain’t broke.
    This rally is back in business. Volume was higher today as well [...]

  • Decision time
    Posted by vinaydh on November 8th, 2009 at 10:02 pm, Comments: 0

    Market is back at the 1070 level. This market has been a nightmare for trend traders lately. Last week it sold of on horrible breadth and high volume and this week it rallied on excellent breadth. The VIX exploded last week and cratered this week. The bearish sentiment exploded lately just after a few percentage [...]

  • Market bidding time to dive
    Posted by vinaydh on November 4th, 2009 at 9:45 pm, Comments: 0

    I think this market is running out of time. Any rally in the next two days should be an opportunity to get out of longs. Next week is when I am looking for real weakness. A trip below 1000 looks likely next week. I have no confidence in the long side except for a day [...]

  • Short term rally likely
    Posted by vinaydh on November 2nd, 2009 at 10:53 pm, Comments: 0

    A short term rally into the FOMC and jobs report this Friday is likely. I am looking for any rally to stall around 1070. This should relieve the oversold condition as well as confuse that the rally is intact. If this rally doesn’t materialize and the market goes sideways then it would mean that the [...]